U.S. holiday sales to rise 7.1%, with new trends

According to the latest data released by MasterCard Spending Pulse, both online and offline retail sales in the United States increased in August compared with the same period last year. Although inflation continues to rise, the agency still predicts that sales in the US holiday sales season will be outstanding.

Data shows that retail sales (excluding automobiles) in the United States in August increased by 11.7% year-on-year and 20.4% compared with 2019. Online sales in August increased by 8.9% year-on-year and 100.2% compared with the same period in 2019.

Among them, the performance growth of the service retail industry was particularly obvious, with industries such as restaurants, airlines and accommodation all achieving double-digit year-on-year growth.

The annual holiday season forecast from MasterCard Spending Pulse shows that U.S. retail sales excluding automotive products are expected to grow 7.1% year-over-year during the upcoming 2022 holiday season . The figure for last year's holiday season was 8.5%.

“Consumers will likely be looking for ways to counter inflationary pressures this holiday season, looking for discounts and making trade-offs to leave more room for spending,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist for MasterCard Spending Pulse. “However, with job creation, rising wages and some savings, more people should be ready to spend.”

The research report also lists the trends that may emerge in the 2022 consumer season:

Longer holiday shopping season : The holiday retail peak may occur as early as October ( MasterCard Spending Pulse analysis shows that the official start of the holiday sales season should be November 1 to December 24). Key promotional days such as Black Friday are also expected to return strongly and become one of the busiest days for retailers.

Season to save : Faced with inflation, consumers are willing to spend more than they bargained for. However, e-commerce sales are still expected to grow this year because online channels allow consumers to check prices in real time.

Brick-and-mortar stores may make a comeback: Brick-and-mortar retail sales are expected to grow 7.9% year-on-year. Although e-commerce has seen significant growth in recent years, in-store consumption accounted for more than 80% of retail sales from January to August 2022.

Fashion products may become the first choice for gift giving: clothing and luxury goods are expected to be popular choices for holiday gifts.

"This year's holiday retail season will certainly be more discounted than last year," said Steve Sadoff, senior consultant at MasterCard. "Supply chain issues have been alleviated, and with a rapid shift in consumer spending trends and excess inventory, retailers are now in a difficult position. Those who can clear inventory and accurately predict inventory needs will see rapid sales growth."

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