Will it take a month to block the European shipping lanes? Cargo ships "block" the European shipping lanes, and sellers are anxious...

The ultra-large container ship that ran aground in the Suez Canal is named "Ever Given" . It was sailing from a Chinese port to the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, full of Chinese goods. The domestic ports it called at include Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen Yantian Port, which has a certain impact on the goods of domestic sellers.

In addition to the delays in European shipping, the increase in freight and oil prices, people all over the world are also paying attention to when the "Ever Given " will refloat. Next, we will introduce in detail the reasons for the grounding of the "Ever Given", the latest news on the resumption of operation, and the impact on European logistics.

A 150-year-old super-large ship "blocks" the Suez Canal

Starting from yesterday afternoon, photos of a ship suddenly flooded the WeChat Moments and social networks. Both freight forwarders and sellers were very concerned about the cargo ship. The impact on logistics has permeated into personal life. It is no exaggeration to say that "Ever Given" is the most watched ship this year.

Look how much attention people pay to this ship. Netizens have gone crazy with it↓↓

Pictures like these two have gone viral on major social media platforms. Now the sinking and rising of ships not only affects people across borders, but also people all over the world. After all, this ship has blocked the Suez Canal, and there are a bunch of ships in front and behind it waiting for it to move.

There are so many ships on the sea now that the route between Asia and Europe is blocked. I don’t know how long the ships behind will have to wait.

According to foreign media reports, the ship suddenly stranded in the artificial canal is a rare event in 150 years. The Guardian reported earlier that the "Ever Given" may have lost power, but Evergreen Shipping also stated that the freighter may have been stranded by a gust of wind. Information from the Egyptian Meteorological Department showed that Egypt was hit by strong winds and sandstorms on the 23rd local time, with wind speeds reaching 50 kilometers per hour.

Although this ship is small on the map, according to CBC, this ship is longer than the Eiffel Tower and the Titanic. "Ever Given" is a 20,000 TEU ultra-large container ship, 400 meters long , 59 meters wide, with a draft of about 16 meters, a displacement of 220,000 tons, and a maximum transport capacity of about 200,000 tons, so it will take a small excavator a while to dig it up.

Industry insiders have said that Evergreen may be fined for causing the blockage of the canal. However, as of now, no shipwreck has occurred at the scene, so it is relatively easy to deal with. The impact on freight rates and traffic will depend on how long the ship is stuck in the canal.

Will the canal be blocked for a month? Has it been reopened to navigation? Opinions are still divided

There are different opinions about when the ship will float again and the canal will be reopened to navigation. Yesterday, one opinion was very popular - the Suez Canal will be blocked for at least a month, and prices in the world shipping market will fluctuate greatly.

I don’t know where the saying that the traffic jam will last at least a month came from, but I looked through foreign media reports and the official initial statement was this:

An Egyptian official who spoke to the Associated Press   confirmed that efforts to remove the ship would take at least two days and blamed a strong 50 km/h gust of wind for the accident . (Chinese translation: An Egyptian official confirmed to the Associated Press that it would take at least two days to remove the ship.)

At 12:00 local time on the 24th, foreign media reported that the ship had partially refloated and was even able to sail again.

GAC Port News was updated at noon local time, saying that according to information from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), "the stranded vessel has partially refloated and is now on the bank of the canal." There are also reports that escort and traffic are expected to resume once the ship is towed to another location.

Interestingly, a report from British Sky TV refuted this claim: "Reports earlier on Wednesday from marine agent GAC that the Ever Given had been partially refloated were inaccurate, Ahmed Mekawy, an assistant manager at GAC's Egypt office, said. Mr Mekawy blamed it on "inaccurate information" that the Dubai-based agent had received." ( Earlier on Wednesday, GAC's report that Ever Given had been partially refloated was inaccurate. )

In addition, the editor went to http://www.shipxy.com/ to check the status at sea in real time.

As of 11:00 a.m. before publication , the status of Ever Given at sea was as follows. As shown in the picture, the ship was still lying across the river bank.

It is still unknown whether the canal will be reopened. But the good news is that within less than 24 hours of the grounding, the authorities opened the old channel to ease the congestion. Although the number and size of ships that the old channel can accommodate in a single day are not as large as the new channel, it can alleviate ship congestion to a certain extent.

With the efforts of the authorities, it is estimated that the opening of the canal to navigation is not far away. After all, this is something that people all over the world are paying attention to. Sellers and freight forwarders can pay attention to the latest news.

The canal blockage has a series of impacts: air delivery prices have risen, logistics have been delayed...

As we all know, the Suez Canal is the "main artery" of Asia and Europe and the core hub of China-Europe trade. If it is congested, the impact will be enormous.

For cross-border sellers, there are four direct impacts:

1. Air China and Qatar Airways price increases

Ever since the news that Ever Given "blocked" the Suez Canal came out, rumors have been circulating that air freight and Qatar Airways prices will skyrocket.

Although there is no definite news that it will take a month as rumored to clear the water, if the stranded water cannot be resolved quickly, some of the goods shipped by sea will inevitably be diverted to air and Qatar Airways. At that time, there will be more suppliers than supplies, and price increases will follow.

Regarding the issue of price increase, the editor also asked some freight forwarders, and they said that there is no news yet on whether there will be a price increase, but there is a high probability that the price will increase.

2. Risk of cargo delay

You can still choose other channels for goods that have not been shipped, but there is a risk of delay for goods that have already been shipped.

It is reported that Ever Given has called at ports such as Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Taipei, and Yantian after it set sail from Kaohsiung Port on February 22. Therefore, sellers who load goods at these ports will experience delays.

In addition, if a ship sails after Ever Given, the delivery time of goods already floating on the sea will also be delayed.

Last night, a freight forwarder announced that for goods shipped from Europe by sea, there will be time delays for ships departing from Shenzhen or Guangzhou after March 9.

3. Large cargo is "stuck in the neck"

Small goods can be transported by air, but for large goods, the blockage of the Suez Canal will become a "bottleneck".

The huge cost of air transport is unbearable, and sea transport is not feasible, which will be extremely uncomfortable for sellers of large goods.

4. As congestion time increases, shipping prices will also rise

Some people may say that there is another route to Europe. Indeed, some professionals said that if the river blockade period is extended to more than two weeks, rerouting some routes around the Cape of Good Hope is also an option.

But according to the editor's understanding, the Cape of Good Hope route is more than 10,000 kilometers longer than the Suez River route . If the shipping company takes this route, the transportation distance will be longer and the shipping company's shipping costs will increase, which will stimulate the increase in sea freight prices to Europe.

In addition, the blockade of the Suez Canal has also affected the return of container ships. Due to the current imbalance in container distribution and the shortage of containers in Asia, if the return trip is continuously affected, the container shortage problem will be further exacerbated. At that time, under the dual disturbance of sentiment and fundamentals, it will also stimulate the rapid growth of shipping prices.

Also, from a broader perspective, if congestion lasts longer, Europe's economy will also be affected:

On the one hand, 100% of the shipping container trade between Asia and Europe can only be carried out through the Suez Canal, and 60% of China's exports to Europe rely on maritime trade. If the blockage period of the Suez Canal is prolonged, China-Europe trade will be interrupted. Since China-Europe container trade is mainly based on finished and semi-finished manufacturing products, there will be a risk of large-scale shortage of these products.

On the other hand, the sharp increase in shipping costs and the general increase in freight rates will be further passed on as a general increase in commodity prices, leading to an increased risk of inflation.

Suez Canal

Evergreen Cargo Ship

Ever Given