The peak season for orders is coming! Many products will be hot-selling in November

At this time of year in previous years, the cross-border e-commerce circle has been flooded with orders, and the peak season atmosphere is already very strong. However, the situation is different this year. Many categories have not shown a clear upward trend in sales until the end of October. Sellers are restless and even worried that this peak season will pass quietly in silence.

Although it’s late, some sellers have found that their store sales have started to pick up in the past two days, and their orders have increased significantly. They are very pleased and are ready to welcome the upcoming sales boom. At the same time, after Halloween, the seller’s backend return rate soared, and sellers selling products related to the holiday felt it particularly deeply.

The long-awaited peak season has rekindled the hopes of sellers, but its duration has been significantly shortened compared to previous years. Amazon has lowered its fourth-quarter earnings forecast, predicting that this year's holiday season revenue will increase by 2%-8% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate in history. Overall, the performance of this peak season will be relatively "conservative."

Sales volume rises in November, the peak season is coming

From September to October, many Amazon sellers experienced a sales decline. One seller said that Amazon's order volume dropped precipitously in September and hit the bottom in mid-October. Price cuts and link optimization had no obvious effect, and he was extremely anxious. This situation was reflected in many categories.

An operator in charge of the pet category initially had high hopes for September, but sales that month dropped by 1/3; sales increased during the Autumn Membership Day in October, but the good times did not last long and sales continued to decline. In the end, the situation was similar to that in September, and the collection of funds was reduced by half.

The same is true for the outdoor category. Some sellers are puzzled. Sales were very strong in November last year, but began to decline in the second half of August this year and have not rebounded since then. Another peer also lamented that the number of orders has dropped ridiculously: "Last year, the average daily sales of outdoor products was 30. Since the end of July this year, daily sales have been declining, only 1/4 of the previous level, especially in September and October, the decline has been very stable, and recently the number of orders has dropped to single digits."

More importantly, they are worried that the situation will be worse in November, and their confidence in the peak season is constantly eroding. But from now on, the situation will turn around.

One seller noticed that the store sales gradually increased after October 25, and the daily advertising fee also began to steadily decline, showing signs of the peak season. On the last day of October, another seller was also pleasantly surprised to find that the orders had rebounded. After observing the top links of several small categories, he found that their rankings had changed from the previous two weeks of synchronous decline, and on this day they were all close to the previous normal rankings. The seller speculated that this might be the horn of the peak season.

Coincidentally, on the first day of November, another seller found that Christmas traffic began to increase, with orders reaching more than 600. Last year, his company's sales exceeded 200 million yuan. By November 2, many sellers confirmed that the order volume had indeed improved significantly.

The obvious order growth started after Halloween. October 31, the eve of Halloween, is the busiest time of the festival. Overseas people are busy dressing up and having fun and have no time to shop. On this day and November 1 , Halloween, some sellers did not receive satisfactory orders. But after the festival, sales gradually recovered and quietly increased.

A gift seller believes that sales usually explode in the last week of October, but this year the sales in late October were even worse than those in early October. People in the industry are worried that the European and American markets may not be prosperous this year. However, after Halloween, sales data finally showed signs of rising, which also put the company's original plans for discount promotions on hold.

Some sellers have previously analyzed that the obvious increase last year occurred on November 1, that is, after Halloween, there was a more obvious peak season atmosphere, and after Thanksgiving, there was a direct start of crazy shopping. However, this year's October Autumn Member Day affected sales in the two weeks before and after the big promotion, and the peak season rhythm fluctuated. Although it was late , after Halloween this week, sellers felt that the peak season atmosphere had increased significantly and were ready to sprint in the last 50 days.

However, the post-Halloween return wave has arrived, with some sellers joking that returns even outnumber orders. In fact, this year's holiday product returns came earlier than in previous years, perhaps because people were short of money and would return unwanted products in a timely manner, which caused headaches for sellers who were not easily able to place orders but were instead returned.

In addition, Amazon's relaxed return process also facilitates this behavior. Before the peak season, Amazon announced an extension of the standard return window, and most items purchased between October 7 and December 31, 2022 can be returned before January 31, 2023.

Next, the sales peak of Thanksgiving and Christmas related products is coming. Some sellers who tried Christmas products for the first time had a good experience. Their products turned off the 10% coupon and increased the price by $1. The sales volume is still rising steadily, and they may be sold out before Christmas.

In October, many Halloween-related products were hot-selling, but as sellers have reported, these products may be ruthlessly returned after the holiday. In addition to Halloween products, sales of other products also rose in October, and there are still many products that have the opportunity to be hot-selling in the next Q4.

Search volume surges, and many products will start selling well in November

Halloween costumes may be a hotbed for returns, and the top three costumes in Google's annual list of the most popular Halloween costumes , "Freightgeist," also performed well on Amazon.

According to Jungle Scout’s statistics, in the past 30 days, the keyword search popularity of these top three Halloween costumes on Amazon has increased by more than 2,000%, and the sales of two of them have increased by more than 10,000%. The three categories of clothing products are as follows:

Inflatable dinosaur suit

Inflatable dinosaur costumes have captured the hearts of many consumers with their cute appearance. In the past 30 days, sales revenue of this category of products increased by 348% and sales volume increased by 294%. Among them, the sales of the top product increased by 13083%, and the keyword search volume of "riding dinosaur costume for adults" increased by 2162%.

Witch Costume

After the release of "The Witches 2" at the end of September, both adult and children's witch costumes were very popular. In the past 30 days, the sales of these witch costumes increased by 339% and the sales volume increased by 352%. Among them, the sales of the top product increased by 10,497%, and the search volume of "women's witch costumes" increased by 2,859% in the past 30 days.

Spiderman Costume

Spider-Man costumes have always been popular, and this year is no exception. Sales of Spider-Man costumes have increased by 505% in the past 30 days, and sales have increased by 552%. Among them, the best-selling Spider-Man costumes have increased sales by 733%, and searches for "children's Spider-Man costumes" have increased by 2163% in the past 30 days.

Of course, October is not all about Halloween. Some autumn products are selling well, and many products have seen a significant increase in sales. In October, the following products were also popular on Amazon.

Pumpkin carving tool kits: In the past 30 days, searches for "pumpkin carving" have soared 1014%, and sales of one relatively popular product have increased 8250% and sales have increased 471% .

Fall wreaths: Fall wreaths are stylish and beautiful in color and style, and have a very autumn atmosphere. Searches for "fall front door wreaths" increased by 468%, and sales of some products soared by 5767% in October.

Wool sheets: As the weather gets cooler in autumn, more people start to need to keep warm, and the sales of wool sheets are increasing. In the past 30 days, the search volume for "wool sheets" has increased by 143%, among which the sales of wool sheet sets, which are selling well, have increased by 3973%.

Portable windshield defroster: Chilly mornings call for a portable windshield defroster, with shoppers searching for “portable car heater” up 513% in the last month.

Winter dog coats: Dogs need warm clothes in winter, too. Consumer searches for "dog coats" increased by 638%! Some products saw sales revenue increase by 830% in the past 30 days.

Autumn doormats: The sense of ritual in autumn is very important, and people like to buy doormats with printed autumn elements. Sales of autumn doormats have increased by 707% in the past 30 days, and this type of product has a wide range of designs and various styles, which is a huge attraction for shoppers.

Electric blankets : Due to the energy crisis, electric blankets are selling very well in Europe this year, and they are also hot in the U.S. In the past 30 days, the number of consumer searches for the keyword "adult heated weighted blanket" has increased by 819%.

Apple peeler : Autumn is the season when apples ripen. Peeling apples after picking them is a big project. In the past 30 days, the keyword search volume of "apple peeler" has increased by 163%.

Stainless steel vacuum flask : In winter, you need to drink hot water. Whether it is a party or an outdoor activity, a thermos flask is indispensable. In the past 30 days, searches and sales related to stainless steel vacuum flasks have also increased.

October has passed, and some hot-selling products are still trending upwards. It is also worth noting that in the upcoming Q4 holiday season, more products will have hot-selling opportunities.

Gift Box

During the holiday season in the fourth quarter , people will give gifts to each other , and the demand for gift boxes will increase greatly. This product may be a good opportunity for some sellers to earn more sales . Instead of selling actual gifts, it is better to sell products that consumers use to wrap their own gifts . Ordinary clothing boxes, colorful gift boxes or boxes with bows are all good choices.

According to search trends in previous years, the search volume for gift boxes will increase significantly starting from November, and will reach a peak around December 5th.

Christmas decorations

Those who celebrate Christmas love to decorate their homes, trees, and even themselves! So, there are plenty of opportunities for Amazon sellers to sell all kinds of Christmas-related decorations, such as decorative light strips, artificial trees, snowflakes, Christmas greeting signs, inflatable toys, and more.

According to Jungle Scout’s statistics, 3.3 million people searched for “Christmas decorations” last year! Sellers can cater to people’s needs and seize the opportunity to make money from Christmas decorations. At the same time, according to the search results of previous years, November is also the peak search period for Christmas decorations.

Gift boxes, Christmas decoration products, etc. will start to take off in November. In fact, this year's peak season has not yet really exploded, and Amazon sellers have many opportunities to boost sales.

Sudden strike at US West Coast ports may affect peak season logistics

However, it should be noted that the logistics timeliness during the peak season is unstable, and sellers still need to pay attention to a series of issues such as the arrival time of goods, FBA warehousing, and shelf speed. Recently, there has been another strike at the West Coast Port of the United States, which may affect the logistics timeliness of some sellers.

It is understood that on Wednesday morning local time in the United States , dock workers at the Port of Oakland on the west coast suddenly went on strike. Several container terminals including Everport, TraPac, OICT and Howard were closed and terminal operations were completely halted!

According to a notice released by the Port of Oakland , the reason for the strike is "because the labor contract has expired ." In fact, the labor contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which represents port employers, expired as early as July 1. Negotiations between the two parties began in May and continued for several months without any results.

On the day of the strike, the first shift of all docks in Auckland was stopped. Dockworkers said that this strike was serious and it was not just about money, but also about livelihood. The Port of Auckland is also paying close attention to this situation.

Any strike will lead to longer logistics time, and sellers need to pay attention to such situations. However, the situation at the Port of Los Angeles, another port in the western United States, has improved recently.

A labor agreement between the Port of Los Angeles' 22,000 longshoremen and their employers has also failed to materialize. It could take months to reach, but the port said service disruptions are unlikely while negotiations are ongoing. Both sides have said they will try to avoid a repeat of the nine months of disruptions and shipping delays that occurred during the last round of talks in 2014 and 2015.

Industry veterans said the talks are expected to bear fruit when the world's 11 largest container shipping companies look at their 2022 profits, which are set to surge this year as U.S. import demand continues to grow.

At present, the congestion and cargo backlog at the Port of Los Angeles have been basically resolved. Gene Seroka, CEO of the port, said on Monday: "We have reduced the congested ships from 109 in January this year to single digits. There are three ships lined up to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the morning."

The basic return to normal of the Port of Los Angeles is a good sign. The port is the largest gateway for container trade with Asia. Together with the neighboring Port of Long Beach, it handles about 40% of US imports. Most of the goods from cross-border sellers also enter the United States through this port.

Another positive sign for sellers is the recent reduction in ocean freight rates.

On October 28, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1697.65 points, down 4.6% from the previous period. On the North American route, the freight rate (sea freight and sea freight surcharge) from Shanghai Port to the basic port market in the western United States was US$1,902/FEU, down 6.3% from the previous period, falling below the US$2,000 mark, and the freight rate was close to the pre-epidemic level.

In fact, as early as two weeks ago, there was news that the freight rate in the West Coast of the United States fell below $2,000, and last week, there were quotations of $1,700 or even lower. Because the market shipment volume has decreased, freight forwarders will also offer certain discounts when receiving goods. As early as two months ago, some freight forwarders lowered the receiving price to 5 yuan per kilogram.

The peak season has arrived, but the freight forwarder's delivery price has not increased, and some have even dropped. Some freight forwarders have even advertised half-price delivery. The low ocean freight prices have also reduced sellers' freight costs during the peak season.

Conservative peak season

For this year's peak season, expectations are relatively limited, whether for sellers, platforms or forecasting agencies.

As for Amazon, it has cut back on hiring or laid off employees several times this year.

Due to the significant expansion during the epidemic and the current slowdown in growth, Amazon decided to control costs and laid off employees in its warehouses and distribution networks. From the first quarter to the second quarter, Amazon's direct employee headcount decreased by 99,000, a record drop.

In early October, Amazon just confirmed that it would freeze recruitment in its retail business. On Tuesday, Amazon issued a notice to suspend recruitment in its advertising department. In the third quarter of this year, the advertising business generated $9.55 billion in revenue for Amazon, but even such a profitable department was not immune to the plan.

On Thursday local time, Amazon officially announced a hiring freeze across the company. Beth Galetti, senior vice president of human resources, revealed that management decided this week to suspend new incremental hiring across the company and expected the hiring freeze to continue in the coming months. The company will continue to monitor the economic and business situation to make meaningful adjustments.

In addition, in order to continue to reduce costs, Amazon is also continuing to reduce warehouse space and reduce fulfillment projects. From suspending recruitment to reducing project burdens, the signal of Amazon's business slowdown is already very obvious.

According to the third quarter financial report of fiscal year 2022, Amazon's net sales in the third quarter were US$127.101 billion, an increase of 15% over the same period last year; net profit was US$2.872 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Among them, net sales from online stores were US$53.489 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%; net sales from third-party seller services were US$28.666 billion, an increase of 18% compared with US$24.252 billion in the same period last year.

Due to factors such as the uncertainty of the consumer spending environment, Amazon is also very cautious about its fourth-quarter forecast, predicting holiday sales of between $140 billion and $148 billion, up 2% to 8% year-on-year, which is far below analysts' expectations. In the following days, Amazon's stock price fell and has now fallen out of the trillion-dollar market value club.

Research institutions' optimism about the shopping season is also limited.

Deloitte predicts that holiday retail sales growth in 2022 will pale in comparison to last year's strong numbers . Sales for the season are expected to rise 4% to 6% year-over-year to $1.47 trillion, compared with a 15% surge to $1.39 trillion in the same period last year, from November to January.

The lower expected growth reflects a slowing economy this year. Daniel Bachman, U.S. economic forecaster at Deloitte, said retail sales could be further hurt by falling demand for durable consumer goods, which have been at the heart of pandemic spending. He said that while inflation should boost dollar sales, retailers’ sales growth could slow.

Judging from the feedback from domestic sellers throughout the year, even though the US dollar exchange rate has continued to rise, few people are willing to take the initiative to raise prices. Due to the decline in sales and fierce competition, the prices of many product categories have fallen instead of increased.

After experiencing this year's continued consumption downturn, sellers' expectations for the peak season have also decreased in the current environment. From the peak season contributing half of the company's annual sales to the contribution value tending to 1/3 or less, people's mentality has gradually calmed down.

Compared with the frenzy of the previous two years, the industry atmosphere has cooled down, but it has also become more rational.

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