Where will the new growth of foreign trade come from next year? 6 judgments from Alibaba International Station

On February 20, at the award ceremony of the "Digital Foreign Trade Award", Zhang Kuo, President of Alibaba International Station, gave his own judgment: "Increase" will once again become the keyword. Helping small and medium-sized enterprises find new growth in the global market will be the core task of Alibaba International Station next year .

Currently, all regions are organizing foreign trade enterprises to go overseas to "grab orders", and Alibaba International Station will also launch 100 digital exhibitions. Where will the increase come from? Zhang Kuo summarized his six judgments:

1. The overall foreign trade situation will take a "U-shaped" rebound curve next year

A "U-shaped rebound" is not a " V -shaped straight rebound ". Recovery takes time, but recovery will definitely come.

2. The recovery of overseas market demand is a high-probability event that can be expected

Judging from recent data, inflation rates in Europe and the United States are falling from high levels, and the turning point of overseas inventory will also appear next year. Overseas demand will recover next year.

As a leading indicator in the field of foreign trade, the active visits and high-quality business opportunities of a series of cross-border e-commerce platforms represented by Alibaba International Station are continuing to rise, which is a clear signal.

3. Say goodbye to "barbaric growth", and the new growth will come from the optimization of industry structure

New growth does not mean a return to the era of "wild growth", but will largely come from the optimization of industry structure.

Among several industries, opportunity industries such as new energy will continue to maintain high growth.

In industries with stable overall growth, there are still opportunities for differentiation. For example, durable goods such as clothing, luggage, and jewelry will also create incremental space as the frequency of overseas travel and business trips increases.

Most industries are worth doing again, and this also applies to the field of foreign trade.

4. Foreign trade digitization is still in its early stages, and digital foreign trade will be the most certain growth

From a horizontal perspective, the digital penetration rate in various markets is still low and uneven. Among the world's major markets, only China's e-commerce penetration rate has reached 30%, while the UK, the US, and Canada are all below this figure. Many other countries and regions are still below 15%, or even at a single-digit level.

From a vertical perspective, there is still a gap in the level of digitalization of foreign trade compared with domestic trade.

It can be expected that there is huge room for growth in digital foreign trade, and it is also the most certain growth in foreign trade in the future.

5. After the epidemic, the use of digital foreign trade services will be irreversible

During the epidemic, digitalization was originally an emergency measure for many foreign trade companies, but after the epidemic is over, the habit of using digital foreign trade services will be irreversible.

The efficiency and stability advantages of digital foreign trade in all links have been proven under the extreme circumstances of the three-year epidemic, allowing companies to still receive orders, ship goods, and collect payments during the epidemic.

This advantage will definitely continue after the epidemic.

6. The improvement of digital foreign trade service capabilities will become a guarantee for seizing new growth

The key to welcoming the increase in volume lies in digital service capabilities. The digital service capabilities of the current foreign trade industry are rapidly improving. In the past five years, Alibaba International Station has launched a series of digital foreign trade service capabilities.

If we say that the past year was still in the stage of "cultivating internal strength", then next year, these capabilities will enter the acceleration stage and further become a guarantee for small and medium-sized enterprises to seize new growth.

In the order acquisition stage, the business opportunities brought by digital exhibitions, cloud factories, live broadcasts and other capabilities have been proven. Next year, Alibaba International Station will further launch 100 overseas digital exhibitions.

In terms of cross-border logistics, Alibaba International Station's logistics service capabilities will be doubled, playing a greater role in helping small and medium-sized foreign trade companies reduce costs and increase efficiency.

In terms of transaction fund security, in the past year alone, Alibaba International Station has secured more than 40 billion US dollars in online transaction funds, and the scale of security is expected to further expand next year.

Alibaba International Station

foreign trade