Wells Fargo North America survey: Beauty and cheap retail are the biggest winners

When asked which product they were most likely to buy first after the pandemic, respondents most often chose makeup, at 40%. Wells Fargo believes this even surpasses "going out clothes," which was chosen by 37%.

Beauty and budget retail are expected to be the biggest winners in 2021 as consumers return to physical stores and begin socializing again, according to a new survey by an investment firm.

Wells Fargo's retail team recently surveyed 1,000 consumers in the United States to better understand their post-pandemic shopping behavior. When asked which product they were most likely to buy first after the pandemic, respondents most often chose cosmetics, at 40%. Even more than "going out clothes", the latter of which was selected by 37%.

The biggest beneficiary of this expected rebound in beauty could be Ulta, according to analyst Ike Boruchow.

Ulta Beauty shares are up about 70% over the past 12 months , giving the company a market value of $16.96 billion.

Ulta said it expects same-store sales to rise 15% to 17% this year compared with 2020. But it warned that its performance will continue to be impacted as long as social distancing measures remain in place.

Wells Fargo expects spending rates for sweat-wicking athletic and home goods to slow this year. Both categories have outperformed their peers over the past 12 months, as consumers stuck at home bought activewear to fuel their fitness routines and redecorated their bedrooms and backyards with new furniture and accessories.

In Wells' survey, only 31% said they expected to buy sports and leisure shoes in the short term, while 33% said the same about home goods.

Other winners in 2021 could be apparel retailers Urban Outfitters , Ralph Lauren and Gap, as well as off-price businesses Burlington Stores, Ross Stores and TJ Maxx owner TJX, according to Boruchow.

The off-price sector was already in decline before the pandemic . But its focus on bargain hunting in stores has hampered performance during the health crisis as many Americans stay home.

As more shoppers return to stores to update their wardrobes, analysts such as Boruchow expect Burlington , Ross and TJX to gain market share in apparel.

North America

cosmetic

retail