Orders dropped by 30%, this peak season is a bit cold

October is almost over. As the beginning of the peak season, sales have been rising at this time in previous years, but this year sellers were surprised to find that the number of orders this month was unexpectedly bleak, with a year-on-year decline of 30% to 40%. Especially in recent days, orders have not increased but decreased since the peak season began, causing sellers to feel anxious.

On the other hand, sellers are preparing for the fourth quarter sales season. Freight forwarders reported that the volume of shipments from Matson channels has surged recently, and the supply of shipping space is very tight. At the same time, Amazon warehouses are still overstocked or have cancelled contracts , so sellers need to adjust their shipping plans appropriately.

A 30% year-on-year decrease, orders in October were bleak

The mood of cross-border sellers fluctuates with the order volume. This week, many sellers suffered a setback in orders, and the order volume in the past two days was particularly bad. Even experienced sellers couldn't understand: Is this the sales volume that should be achieved during the peak season?

" Is there a ghost story today? All orders have been cut in half? "

“Amazon orders hit worst record.”

"The last three days have been extremely bad."

" Orders have been bleak these past two days. When will the peak season at the end of the year come? "

The autumn promotion is a dividing line. A seller said that there were indeed more orders during the promotion, but after the promotion, it was as if everything was frozen, with no traffic and no profit. More than half of the dozens of orders a day were sent out through the Vine plan. "It was okay for one or two days after the promotion, but sales plummeted on the third day. I even doubted my life. It was the worst in a month."

The peak season has arrived, but the change in sales volume is chilling. If the short-term performance is not enough to alert people, then looking at the performance so far in October, many sellers have realized that this October is not a good month.

Seller @Amazon五爷 said, "I feel that in October this year, except for the two days of the Fall Member Day, the sales were terrible the rest of the time, down nearly 30% year-on-year. " This feedback was recognized by many sellers. Some sellers said that sales also dropped by 30-40%, a huge drop, and the collection of funds was significantly reduced compared to last year.

It seems that the low sales volume in recent days may not only be due to the siphon effect of the big promotion. One seller pointed out, " Don't think that the decline in orders after the autumn promotion is normal. In theory, we have entered the Q4 peak season. The data in previous years should have been steadily rising after the autumn promotion. "

Holiday products are a good indicator of the peak season. Generally speaking, October 18th to 27th is the period with the highest traffic for Halloween products. Now is the hot selling period, but sellers of related categories have also reported that the situation is not good.

One seller bluntly said that "it's not going well this year". He started selling his Halloween products in August last year , and then replenished them several times. However, he had already started clearing out his inventory in the first week of October this year. The contrast is obvious.

There are many similar situations, and when the overall market demand decreases, orders will move closer to the top links. A seller has a deep understanding: "Because last year was not as expected, we are more conservative in stocking for Halloween this year. The order volume in the past few days is only 1/6 of the same period last year. In this case, the top traffic and conversion will indeed be more concentrated, but the bottom links feel worse. The competitive pressure has not decreased at all. I can't run even if I break my feet. I just advertise for sales. The goods are sold, but I lose more..."

The peak season is a bit cold, and sellers lower their expectations

The number of orders for Halloween products failed to explode, and sellers' expectations for Christmas began to decline. Some peers reminded that seasonal products should not be over-promoted because the foreign economy has not recovered and may decline further. When the situation is unclear, it is most important to seek stability. If the layout is based on the previous aggressive thinking of pursuing sales, it may lead to excessive risks.

At least so far, this peak season is a bit cold. In this market situation, sellers don't seek to make more money, and it's good enough to break even. "Prepare the goods well, do what you need to do on a daily basis, and don't have the word 'expectation' now. This is my feeling this year." said a seller.

In light of the current situation, sellers can also take some countermeasures. However, when the product is fixed, the adjustments that can be made are very limited. From a long-term development perspective, you can consider looking for a second growth curve, cutting off weak products in old categories, and focusing on products with growth potential.

Although the peak season effect has not yet appeared in terms of orders, Amazon's holiday season supporting services have already been launched.

On the 18th, Amazon announced that it would extend the return period for the 2023 holiday season as in previous years , stipulating that goods purchased between November 1 and December 31, 2023 can be returned before January 31, 2024, with the exception of Apple-branded products, which can be returned before January 15, 2024 .

This policy applies to seller-delivered, Amazon Logistics and Amazon retail orders , and the return period for most orders will be extended . Considering the short-term use of holiday products, sellers need to pay close attention to the return rate and the resulting costs.

Busy with cross-border stocking, Meisen channels are booming

Although the current order volume is lower than expected, sellers still have high expectations for the entire peak season.

Some sellers’ sales on Black Friday last year increased several times, so they are very motivated this year. They plan to ship the goods next week and arrive at the US warehouse in 15 days. However, there is only one week left until Black Friday, and considering that the warehouse will be full by then, there is not much time left.

Amazon sellers are collectively preparing for Black Friday. As a result, the stable delivery channel of Matsun has been overwhelmed. Shenzhen freight forwarder Jack Chen said, "Matsun's regular and overtime ships are overwhelmed. They are sold out as soon as they come out. They leave on Wednesdays and Thursdays, and usually receive goods on Sundays. Now they are almost sold out on Mondays and Tuesdays."

In fact, Meisen was already very popular last week. At the critical moment, sellers were still willing to spend money to choose more stable channels. This situation continued this week. Meisen was very nervous, and it even reminded people of the situation in 2021 when Meisen was sold out on Monday.

In addition to the first-leg time efficiency, sellers must also consider the warehouse's operating efficiency when shipping. According to the latest Amazon warehouse appointment and delivery time efficiency updated by Jack Chen Company, in terms of pallet appointments, ONT9 frequently refuses to accept due to warehouse overflow; LAX9, in addition to fixed appointments, still frequently postpones appointments, and the number of appointments is reduced; SMF3 has refused to accept due to warehouse overflow, and the appointment is released for about one week.

In addition, GYR2, LAS1, and GYR3 have had contract cancellations and postponements, and the timeliness will be delayed by 2-3 days compared to before; VGT2 has had contract changes and cancellations recently; FWA4 has occasionally had contract postponements, and the container dismantling appointment is about 1 week; the contract release situation for MQJ1, IND9, and MDW2 has eased, and the container dismantling appointment is about 1 week, and there are occasional contract cancellations and postponements; the contract release situation for ABE8 and TEB9 has eased, and the container dismantling appointment is about 1-2 weeks, and there are contract cancellations and changes, and cargo needs to be collected and delivered.

Sellers can make targeted delivery plans based on expected sales during the peak season and the current status of logistics.