Since the beginning of this year, there have been constant reports of a decline in foreign trade orders, and one of the "evidences" is the accumulation of empty containers at the port. Yien.com visited the Yiwu industrial belt, and local foreign trade companies gave different answers. "Our factory was already overwhelmed from January to March, and orders were scheduled until June this year," said Yiwu Ouchi.
Data from Alibaba International Station shows that foreign trade has picked up. In the core consumer markets of Europe and the United States, CPI data has gradually declined, the consumer confidence index is recovering, and demand for sub-categories such as home furnishings and personal care has soared; the demand for non-consumer products such as machinery in ASEAN and other places continues, which is changing the regional structure of orders for foreign trade merchants.
The epidemic has intensified the penetration of e-commerce in the past three years and accelerated the digitalization of foreign trade. Live streaming and videos have become new tools for grabbing orders. Ou Chi won a big order in 59 minutes through live streaming , while Zhejiang Aidu bluntly stated that "as long as you turn on the video, there will be no failed transaction ."
Foreign trade is picking up, and some businesses have orders scheduled until June
On March 20, Yu Jianhua, Director General of the General Administration of Customs of China, said that China's foreign trade imports and exports have stabilized significantly since February. The next day , Zhang Kuo, President of Alibaba International Station, introduced at the annual communication meeting that from the platform data, digital foreign trade has taken the lead in recovering. Since January this year, the growth rate of foreign trade online has recovered to more than 30%, and the peak growth rate has reached 40%.
"In February, the entire international site, both in terms of scale and depth of business opportunities, reached a high point since October last year, and reached a new high during the New Trade Festival in March. In addition to the one-time driving effect, the platform's independent visits also increased by 40%, and a large number of buyers began to become active. This is a sign that the overall environment is warming up," said Zhang Kuo.
So where does the impression that "foreign trade orders have dropped sharply" come from?
As for the situation of empty containers, which has attracted much attention, the impact of the epidemic has caused the export supply chain to be blocked for a long time, and a large number of containers are in transit or stranded at overseas ports, making it difficult to find a container at the domestic export end. In 2019, the price of a standard container shipped to the United States was one or two thousand US dollars, but it once soared to 30,000 US dollars per standard container during the epidemic.
To this end, a large number of containers have been put into the market and shipbuilding has been stepped up . These ships will be launched one after another around 2023, but the supply chain has been reopened after the end of the epidemic, overseas demand has returned to normal, and the shipping capacity is unprecedentedly abundant, resulting in the current situation of idle containers.
Liu Mingyang, CEO of Yiwu Ochi Import and Export Co., Ltd., believes that foreign trade is not as bad as rumored: "There are one or two industries that are affected, but most are thriving. We feel that the factory orders from January to March are already overwhelmed, and now the orders are scheduled until June this year; in Yiwu Yongkang, orders for products such as outdoor tents, trekking poles, and barbecue pots have been scheduled until next year. Because it could not arrange production, Silk City Network just rejected an order for 1.5 billion meters of imitation silk."
There are also concerns about "orders flowing to Vietnam". In fact, Vietnam's core export categories include consumer electronics, clothing, furniture, etc., but these all fall into the category of durable consumer goods. In the future, the main trend of durable consumer goods in Europe and North America will still be "destocking". Compared with China, which has both consumer goods and non-consumer goods such as machinery, Vietnam's export categories are more affected globally. In addition, the total export volume of Vietnam and China is very different, and the gap in the independent export capabilities of private enterprises is even greater. "Substitution" is not realistic.
With the diversification of foreign trade, the demand for pets and other categories is rising
From the perspective of export regions, China's foreign trade is becoming more diversified, with consumer goods and non-consumer goods driving the market from both ends.
Last year, the consumption power of the European and American markets was suppressed. On the one hand, it was due to inflation, and on the other hand, the inventory growth during the epidemic was large, and the market needed a certain amount of time to destock. Even so, China's export growth to the United States has remained above the waterline for three consecutive years. At the same time, ASEAN and the EU have also developed well. In 2021, China's export growth to the EU reached a peak of 33%. From 2021 to 2022, exports to ASEAN maintained double-digit growth.
Zhang Kuo analyzed: "Regions such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Mexico have seen relatively rapid growth. The sales of a large number of non-consumer goods, especially machinery manufacturing products, in these regions have also driven the rapid recovery of China's foreign trade as a whole. "
Judging from the data of the New Trade Festival in March on the international site, North America and Europe are still the core markets for large consumption, and the consumption trends are clear: rigid demand , cost-effectiveness, and durability have become important purchasing factors, and household cleaning, hair and oral care, hygiene products, baby diapers, etc. have become trend categories; environmental protection themes have received attention, and home gardening, cleaning sets, portable charging, green travel, and kitchen supplies are popular; in terms of smart interactive entertainment , personalized consumption with micro-innovation and multi-functions is more popular, and categories such as home intelligence, smart wearables, smart pet feeding, home beauty, and smart fitness have become trends.
In the current environment of pressure on consumer goods, some subcategories are still performing well. For fast-moving consumer goods, people are more concerned about rigid needs and high cost performance. Among them, pet toy inquiries increased by 605% year-on-year, multi-functional mop sets increased by 367%, and teeth whitening was not inferior; durable goods that can achieve equal quality and micro-innovation also grew well, among which smart watches with health monitoring increased by 392% year-on-year, and antibacterial customized jerseys and pickleballs also grew significantly.
In the first half of the epidemic, consumer goods continued to lead, and in the second half, non-consumer goods began to overtake, and have grown faster than consumer goods in the past 18 months. Last year, China's exports of mechanical products to ASEAN grew by more than 20%. On Alibaba International Station, all non-consumer goods have developed significantly, with growth in several major industries such as energy, smart manufacturing and services, and smart travel exceeding 50%.
From the perspective of the market environment, CPI data in Europe and the United States have gradually declined, and the US consumer confidence index has steadily rebounded. Another positive is that the inventory curve, which has been rising since April 2020, has stabilized since January this year. In addition, North America consumes goods at a faster rate. The industry predicts that destocking will enter a new stage around September this year, when foreign trade orders will increase again.
A live broadcast won a big order, and digitalization has become a new trend in foreign trade
The pandemic has allowed overseas e-commerce to complete the journey several years ahead of schedule, but it has also created considerable obstacles to foreign trade orders. Alibaba International Station has therefore launched video tools such as online exhibitions, real-time reception by real people, and cross-border live broadcasts , with the original intention of solving the problem that buyers cannot communicate with sellers face to face.
So far this fiscal year, more than 43,000 merchants have started online exhibitions, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The average daily number of sessions in March was 7,800, a year-on-year increase of 63% as of the 20th. The number of people staying on the live broadcast and the return visit rate have also increased. The number of viewers in March increased by nearly 200%, and the merchant conversion rate of live broadcast viewers increased by 9.6%.
At present, digital foreign trade tools represented by video are widely used by enterprises in foreign trade industrial belts. Alibaba International Station released the "Top Ten Digital Foreign Trade Industrial Belts", including Yiwu Small Commodities, Yongkang Thermos Cups, Weihai Fishing Gear, Shantou Chenghai Toys, Foshan Building Materials, Guangzhou Auto Parts , Yangtze River Delta Packaging and Printing, Shenzhen New Energy, Shandong Machinery and Guangxi Wuzhou Artificial Gem Industrial Belt.
In Yiwu small commodity industrial belt, Yiwu Ouchi and Zhejiang Aidu Clothing Co., Ltd. are both "star" merchants.
Zhejiang Aidu mainly deals in yoga clothing products and has been ranked No. 1 in the domestic trade wholesale field for many years in a row . In November 2020, Aidu entered the Alibaba International Station and set its first "small goal" for going overseas at 10 million US dollars.
From January to March this year , Aidu's orders increased by 30%, which was partly due to cross-border live streaming. Aidu's general manager Lai Guorong was pleasantly surprised: "As long as foreign customers are willing to video chat with us, there is no one who fails to make a deal. Through live streaming, we take them around the office area, the R&D room, the exhibition room, and the proofing workshop, and the orders are quickly placed."
A year earlier than Aidu, in 2019, Liu Mingyang set up a team to start working on Alibaba International Station, and turned small customers into big customers through the "fish farming strategy". Domestic short videos are hot, and Liu Mingyang is also optimistic about overseas video promotion. Within a month, Ochi posted more than 300 short videos and received product inquiries from 27 customers. After tasting the sweetness, Ochi has been insisting on digitalization and short video strategies, and ushered in a greater explosion.
Once, Ochi impressed a high-level overseas distributor. In order to let the distributor know more about its brand and products, Ochi and the distributor jointly broadcast live on Facebook and Instagram. Ochi also broadcast live on Alibaba International Station. Ochi employees explained the products, while overseas distributors showed huge warehouses and busy workers. This "powerful" sales scene was quite contagious. The live broadcast lasted 59 minutes and 9 seconds, and 17,000 orders were completed. In the end, the distributor placed an order of 50,000 pieces with Ochi at one time.
This live broadcast confirmed the power of live broadcast and short videos for Ochi. Analyzing the reasons for the company's success, Liu Mingyang believes that it is the good use of digital tools, and cross-border live broadcast and short videos are one of them. In addition, Ochi often uses the backend data of Alibaba International Station to select products and understand the market; foreign trade orders are gradually fragmented. Now Ochi has accumulated 47,000 customers. How to manage the huge customer preferences and order information? The platform OKKI tool has become an intelligent "administrator". The penetration of foreign trade digitalization is deepening. With the blessing of this favorable situation, traditional foreign trade industrial belts such as Yongkang thermos cups and Weihai fishing gear have also ushered in new business opportunities. China's foreign trade still has greater room for growth, and "digitalization" will greatly accelerate this process. |
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