It is difficult to ship to many places! Sellers prepare goods 6 months in advance

Recently, the domestic epidemic has spread to many places, and cross-border e-commerce hubs such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have also been hit. Sellers' daily office, warehousing, logistics and stocking have all been affected, which makes them feel uneasy.

Considering that the delivery rhythm may be disrupted, some sellers have begun to prepare for a rainy day, preparing for two to three months or even longer. One seller suggested that the last order before the New Year could be directly prepared until April next year. Under the changing situation, sellers' supply chain management capabilities are facing challenges.

Delivery is blocked, sellers suggest stocking up until April next year

According to public data, on November 27, Shenzhen added 54 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 72 new asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. On November 26, Guangzhou added 146 new local confirmed cases and 7,266 new local asymptomatic cases. It will take some time to completely control the epidemic. Shenzhen advocates working from home from November 28 to December 2 (Monday to Friday) this week.

Work in the affected areas is inevitably affected. One seller felt deeply touched. In July, he selected a Christmas product, but it was delivered very late due to the lockdown in Yiwu. As a result, his Canadian site is about to run out of stock, and Yiwu is no longer able to ship. There are many similar situations.

The e-commerce industry has no requirements for office locations. Some sellers analyzed that the epidemic may cause employees to be unable to report to work, and everyone has become accustomed to working from home, so it is not a big problem; but the probability and impact of problems on the supplier side will be relatively large, and it is recommended to prepare stocks in advance for the first half of next year. This is also an issue that many sellers are currently considering - preparing stocks in advance.

Currently, most sellers are still immersed in the atmosphere of the hot sales during Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday. After this wave of orders, many sellers will have inventory gaps that need to be filled. By then, people will clearly realize the severe test of the supply chain.

When suppliers urged merchants to prepare goods in advance for the Spring Festival, they mentioned the various anomalies they encountered this year:

When the customer was not blocked, the logistics was blocked

When logistics was unblocked, customers were blocked again

The place of shipment is not sealed, but the place of receipt is sealed.

The receiving place is unblocked, and the shipping place is blocked again

The place of shipment is not sealed, the place of receipt is not sealed, but the transit station is sealed

This is the fact, and the uncertainty in all links is increasing. "I originally planned to visit several factories at the end of the month, but two factories told me that they have started to close down again. Although the delivery of goods will not be delayed, production can be carried out, but the logistics are a bit uncertain. I don't know if the goods can be delivered normally." said a seller.

At present, some suppliers have stopped operating or even closed down. Yesterday, a seller was informed by a supplier that the company had closed down, and this was a large-scale supplier with decades of history; other manufacturers have already gone on holiday or will not be able to operate normally in the short term.

Next, what if the goods cannot be shipped for two or three months or even longer?

This question touched the sellers' hearts. "I have been worried about this issue before. Due to storage capacity reasons, I can only try my best to ensure that the main profitable links are not out of stock, and arrange at least 3 months of goods in cooperation with overseas warehouses to build a certain risk resistance." A seller said, but the shipment volume of secondary links and new products can only be appropriately reduced, advertising can be reduced to control sales, and sprint again after the hype has passed.

An industry insider believes that most factories will not be able to start work on time after the Spring Festival this year, and recommends that sellers prepare the last order before the New Year directly until April next year. Many sellers agree with this, and some companies have prepared goods until the end of April or even May. However, such a long preparation period requires sellers to have high financial resilience.

Stocking has become one of the sellers' headaches. If they don't stock enough, they won't be able to sell. Affected by uncontrollable factors, factory shipments are not so smooth. However, as an Amazon seller, you can't be blind in stocking. After all, the platform's inventory capacity has been updated frequently recently, and many sellers' inventory capacity has been severely cut, while some US retailers have a large amount of inventory.

Is the inventory capacity changing daily? Sellers need to consider the overall environment when preparing inventory

Yesterday, a seller discovered that Amazon’s inventory capacity has been updated again. This frequency of updates makes people wonder: “Is the inventory capacity updated once a day?”

Some sellers then discovered that Amazon’s inventory capacity was updated frequently last week, and it seems that the inventory capacity has been updated every day in recent days . One seller confirmed that Amazon’s inventory capacity has been updated once a day since last Tuesday. Amazon’s inventory capacity adjustment is always on the nerves of sellers, and it changes more frequently during the peak season.

At the end of October, just as sellers were preparing to start their peak sales season, many sellers discovered that Amazon had slashed its inventory capacity, ranging from hundreds to thousands, to tens of thousands. Many sellers’ replenishment pages went viral. In early November, mid-November, and late November, when the peak season began, Amazon’s inventory capacity adjustments never stopped, and sellers found they were unable to replenish their stock when they needed to.

With the factory's shipping problems and Amazon's storage capacity restrictions, sellers are in a dilemma when it comes to stocking up. Many sellers lament: "It's too difficult!" At present, due to shipping restrictions, some sellers have to plan their stocking up for next year in advance. It is worth noting that American retailers are currently facing a large amount of inventory, which can be seen from the discounts offered by this year's Black Friday promotion .

The latest data from Adobe Analytics shows that toy prices fell to a record low during this holiday season, with price cuts peaking at 30% in the first three weeks of November, up from 19% last year.

Not only toys, the discounts on electronic products have reached 22%, computers 14%, and home appliances 13%; the prices of clothing, sporting goods and furniture have dropped by 12%, 8% and 4% respectively, while the overall declines last year were 13%, 6% and 2%.

This year's discounts are not the lowest, only lower! This kind of deep discount situation will continue during the holiday season.

According to Adobe, the biggest discounts will be offered on computers and furniture on Cyber ​​Monday, and appliances will be sold at the highest discounts on Dec. 1. The ongoing economic downturn is also prompting more shoppers to look for deals online, analysts said.

Affected by the continued impact of inflation, indicators of U.S. consumer conditions during the holiday season are mainly pessimistic, and overall holiday sales will not be optimistic.

The University of Michigan 's consumer confidence index for November was 56.8, higher than the initial value of 54.7, but still much lower than 59.9 in October. The purchase intention of large items fell from 90 in October to 73 in November, the lowest in the history of the sub-index.

Although Black Friday sales have seen some growth due to retailers offering big discounts, this situation may not continue in the period before Christmas.

Upcoming data may confirm a weak U.S. economy and falling inflation. As consumers bought earlier this year, some retail sales growth was based on offering deep discounts and clearing out unwanted inventory. Amazon sellers should feel the same way, and many sellers who saw a surge in sales on Black Friday offered large discounts.

Given the economic situation in the United States, sales expectations before Christmas are not good, and American retailers will continue to offer low prices and large discounts. When domestic sellers are preparing for stocking, they must also pay close attention to the overall environment and make relevant plans based on actual conditions.

Amazon

Stocking

Black Friday