Latest forecast: US holiday online sales will exceed $200 billion

Adobe predicts that online sales will set a new record. From November to December this year , holiday online sales are expected to exceed $200 billion for the first time, reaching $207 billion. This will be a 10% increase from 2020. In the case of physical stores being closed or restricted from 2019 to 2020, online sales in the 2020 peak season achieved a 33% increase. Although spending growth may slow this year, looking at the performance from 2014 to 2019, holiday sales growth has always hovered in the 10%-20% range, which shows that online sales growth has returned to normal levels.

Adobe also roughly estimated the sales at various times on Cyber ​​Monday. Starting at 4 a.m., sales will continue to rise every hour; at 10 a.m., they will gradually stabilize, hovering around $600 million per hour; and at night, sales will rush to $700 million per hour.

In addition, Adobe stressed that the problem of out-of-stock goods will continue to exist under the circumstances of increased seasonal demand. Retailers will continue to face supply chain tensions due to the congestion at major ports, insufficient supply of shipping containers, and a lack of truck drivers.

Compared with 2020, the number of items out of stock increased by 172%; and compared with 2019, the number of items out of stock increased by an even greater 172%.

Currently, clothing is the most out-of-stock category in the retail industry, followed by sporting goods, baby products and electronics. Therefore , Adobe pointed out that retailers will start promotions in advance to avoid logistics and transportation problems.

Adobe also said that in order to avoid out-of-stock, many sellers will offer smaller discounts. Coupled with the continued inflation of e-commerce, the prices of goods during this peak season will be generally higher. Therefore, Adobe expects that the discount intensity this year will be weakened, and the maximum discount will be set in the range of 5%-25%, which is lower than the 10%-30% in previous years. Under this circumstance, consumers will spend 9% more during the holiday shopping season than the same period last year.

Finally, Adobe noted that the trend of consumers turning to smartphones for online shopping has plateaued this year. Despite this, consumers will still see a 16.6% increase in online spending via mobile phones during this holiday shopping season.

USA

Holiday Sales