Sinarmas Sekuritas: Indonesia's retail industry is expected to recover in 2022

The epidemic has affected the economies of many countries around the world, but as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, the economies and industries of various countries are gradually recovering. It is reported that Indonesia's retail and consumer goods industries are gradually improving and are expected to return to normal in 2022.    

“ The pandemic has had a significant impact on the retail sector over the past year . In September 2020, the retail sector recorded a decline in same-store sales growth ( SSSG) compared to 2018 and 2019, ” explains Sinarmas Sekuritas analyst Elvira Natalia .

According to data compiled by Sinarmas Sekuritas, PT Ace Hardware Indonesia's SSSG fell by 13.5% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 , but fell by 8% in the nine months of 2020 .

Additionally , PT Mitra Adiperkasa’s (MAPI) SSSG, which increased by 8% and 4% in 2018 and 2019 respectively , fell by 33% in the nine months of 2020 .

Because of this, PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF)'s SSSG, which reached 2.9% and 6.7% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, fell sharply by 57.2% in the nine months of 2020 .

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) also had the same experience .

Elvira explained that the sharp drop in SSSG for Matahari and Ramayana was due to the large-scale social restrictions ( PSBB) during the Eid al-Fitr period in 2020 , and that the two companies mostly rely on the holiday period for their main revenue . “ The consumer target group of both companies is the lower-middle class , and the lower-middle class has seen a reduction in income , ” said Elvira .

At the same time, Elvira said that Ace Hardware 's decline in the third quarter of 2020 was not too large because the shopping intensity of its main customer groups was not affected by the holidays.

On the other hand, with the spread of Covid-19 vaccines , we can see an upward trend in sales at restaurants or cafes , tourist attractions and shopping malls , and the economy is slowly growing. Elvira believes that the retail industry will return to its previous normal state next year.

Elvira said that online sales strategies will affect customer choices and changing the brand is not the best option. But despite this, digital sales still account for 5% of total sales .

On the other hand, the penetration rate of e-commerce in Indonesia is increasing. Data shows that the e-commerce penetration rate in Indonesia increased by 6% in 2020 compared with 2018 and 2019 .

Indonesia

Retail