The number of orders has increased dramatically! Some Amazon sellers are seeing a rebound in sales

In the first half of this year, the order volume of most sellers has almost been in a downward trend. They always use words such as "chattering, hitting new lows, performance failing to meet targets, cut in half, and cut in half" to describe their order volume.

However, good news has been coming one after another recently. Sellers have been giving feedback that "my order volume has recovered" and "it is stable and improving". Some sellers also said that "sales in the first half of the year are close to the whole of last year" and "profits have increased several times". The recovery in order volume also confirms the predictions of many institutions before: the second half of the year will be a growth point and the peak season will not be depressed.

Although some sellers admit that their profits have shown a clear downward trend, it is undeniable that Amazon's dividends are still there, and most sellers have finally returned to Amazon. After wasting time on platforms such as eBay and Temu, sellers have not thought about sticking with it. Instead, they are jealous of the orders of the Amazon sellers next door and say they want to run away to Amazon.

"The first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the second half is expected to improve," sellers generally believe that the U.S. market will not be depressed in the second half of this year and will remain "the hope of the whole village." The actual conditions of the U.S. market, such as rising consumer incomes and a recovery in the real estate industry, are sufficient to support sellers through the entire peak season.

Order volume has revived, and sales of some Amazon sellers have rebounded

"How is the order volume today?" seems to have become one of the daily questions in the cross-border circle. Regarding the order volume that a large number of sellers are concerned about, their answers in the past were always words such as "chattering, unbearable to watch, plummeting, cut in half, and cut in half", but now the sellers' answers have changed.

One seller said: "The order volume was okay yesterday, and today it has recovered to 80% of the normal level." And below the seller's message, many sellers were overjoyed: the order volume is not bad, much better than usual, and stable and improving.

"Others' orders are falling, but what's wrong with me? The number of orders is getting higher day by day, and the inventory can't keep up," a seller said helplessly. It's useless to have a large number of orders. Amazon is too slow to receive orders. There are more than 30,000 pieces of goods in transit, but they are not put on the shelves when they arrive. What's wrong with Amazon? I really want to go to the Amazon warehouse to help them receive the goods. Xiao Liu, a clothing seller, said that the number of orders is rising, and the key is that he has not done any off-site discounts. It is a bit hard to believe that this is the number of orders before the Member Day.

Coincidentally, some sellers also lamented: the number of orders has increased from dozens to nearly a thousand, and finally the hard work has paid off. I hope that after the membership day, the number of orders can remain so good, and we can double it in the second half of the year to make up for the loss in the first half of the year.

The order volume of some sellers has changed recently, while the order volume of some sellers has been rising since the beginning of the year.

"As of the end of June, the company's sales have been close to last year's full-year sales," a seller said on a social platform. According to the seller's feedback, the company mainly relies on the growth of orders in the North American market. The performance completed in the first half of 2023 is close to last year's full-year sales, and this year's full-year sales are expected to double. However, the seller also pointed out that the order volume in the UK and European markets is not satisfactory. Like most sellers, the decline in order volume is very severe.

Some sellers said frankly: In today's environment, we are more pursuing profits. In the first half of the year, the company directly cut off unprofitable categories. Although sales were more than halved, profits increased several times, which is also a good harvest. Previously, some cross-border sellers also mentioned that they could eliminate some products based on factors such as product gross profit, sales volume, return rate and market capacity to maximize profits.

When the environment is good, many people make money . When the environment is bad, the 80/20 rule becomes more obvious. The sellers with increased performance in the first half of the year may be the 20% of sellers. Marketplace Pulse data shows that 15,000 sellers on Amazon's US site receive more than 100,000 orders each year, and these sellers contribute nearly half of the market's hundreds of billions of dollars in sales.

Previously, many institutions predicted that mid-2023 would be a turning point, and that sellers’ order volume would pick up in the second half of the year. Now this prediction has been confirmed by the recovery of some sellers’ order volume.

However, it has always been a dilemma to have both joy and sorrow. The explosion of orders is only a carnival for a few sellers, while a larger number of sellers are experiencing the sadness of plummeting orders. Most sellers are still in a situation where they are spending a lot of money on advertising, but orders are not improving at all. Sellers have complained that "the number of orders has also been cut in half today, I don't know why", "sales seem to have been paused", and "who can save my pitiful number of orders".

The number of orders is getting worse day by day. Others have huge orders , but I have zero orders. We are really different. Looking at the low order volume before Member Day, a seller said helplessly: "Orders dropped sharply before Member Day. I don't know if the order volume can recover after Member Day."

They attributed the decline in orders to the rush for traffic from other platforms before the Prime Day. One seller pointed out that orders from sellers before the Prime Day were always cold, which was normal. Other sellers pointed out that the decline in orders was either due to the low average order value of the products or the fact that they were located in the European market, or mainly due to differences in sites and categories.

It is understood that before Amazon Prime Day, in addition to Walmart, Target and other platforms launching big promotions in advance with discounts of up to 50%, Temu has also been implementing promotional strategies, with some products priced as low as 10% off. Recently, Temu has also launched a wave of advertisements on social platforms, about "new product listing prices reduced to $0.99." And $0.99 is not the lowest, there is also a hot-selling shoe priced as low as $0.64, and the pictures of these products are not low-end at all, but have a sense of American trendy brands.

When buying products, overseas consumers often directly compare products on Amazon and Temu and other platforms, and buy the products with lower prices. Someone posted a photo of the same pair of earrings, which sold for $22.99 on Amazon, but only $4.98 on Temu, almost 80% off. This is undoubtedly a fatal blow to sellers of low-value products.

However, industry insiders pointed out that even though some sellers’ orders and sales have both increased, their profits are still declining. They attributed the reasons to rising advertising costs, intensified internal and external competition, and the slowdown in the development of cross-border e-commerce. Relevant data shows that on Amazon, the proportion of sellers with declining profits is as high as 55%, which means that more than half of the sellers’ profits are either declining or stagnant.

Recently, Amazon has also used other means to compete, such as canceling the small and light commodity plan, launching discount plans, and displaying sales data on the front desk, which has further squeezed the profit margins of sellers. Many sellers believe that Amazon is becoming more and more like Taobao, and the new policy is just a way to compete with other platforms by passing the costs on to sellers. After the new policy, some sellers will choose to reduce prices and other means to maintain their rankings, which also means that the costs of sellers will become higher and higher, so much so that many sellers say that they can make less and less money, and a new round of price wars is coming again.

But this does not hinder Amazon's status in the market. It is still the platform where sellers can get the most traffic.

After entering Temu and other platforms, they want to run to Amazon

In the short term, the pattern of the US e-commerce market will not change. According to eMarketer data, this year's US online retail market sales will increase by 10.2% year-on-year to US$384.57 billion, accounting for more than one-third of total sales. It is expected that by 2027, the US online retail market share will increase to 34.8%, and online retail sales will reach US$603.2 billion.

The same is true for the platform. Amazon still leads the US e-commerce market with high sales. In this year's fierce competition, nearly 600,000 new sellers registered to sell goods on Amazon . However, many sellers have different opinions on the issue of Amazon's bonus period.

Many sellers believe that Amazon has now entered a mature stage, leaving fewer and fewer opportunities for new sellers. The root cause is that some sellers have mastered the use of price as a breakthrough weapon. They lower prices - other sellers follow suit - big sellers lower prices - their own products fail to sell - advertising bidding soars - advertising losses - factories ignore them - shipping and restocking losses - products become scrapped, which ultimately leads to a decline in profits for the entire category, and they are happy to be philanthropists.

Seller Amazon Wuye believes: "Amazon's bonus period will last at least three years. Judging from gross profit alone, the profit in the first five years was 40%, and in the first two years it was 30%. But now even 20% gross profit is difficult. The obvious decline in profits is a trend that is the same in every market. Sellers need to seize the bonus period of three years, otherwise they may not make any money in the next 10 years."

The bonus period is a short-term imbalance between supply and demand. As long as Amazon's supply and demand are not balanced, there will still be bonuses. For ordinary sellers, the bonus period may have ended, and they can try to choose a suitable new potential platform to join. In their view, increased competition from peers, capital access, and a surge in the number of sellers are all key factors affecting the bonus period.

But for sellers with product supply chain and capital advantages, Amazon is still in a bonus period. However, unlike before, the era of Amazon making money has passed. What is needed now is the seller's own efforts and accumulation, which tests the seller's strategy, capital, supply chain and various resources. Sellers can also consider developing and strengthening themselves during the bonus period, and then optimize and transform after the bonus period.

Sellers who have tried to layout on too many platforms are particularly fond of Amazon.

From waiting to launching, more and more sellers choose to enter new platforms or deploy on multiple platforms in a short period of time. H is a seller with multiple platforms, including eBay, Temu and other platforms, but he gradually found that these platforms were not as good as Amazon, and he wanted to abandon his store and run to Amazon.

As for the eBay platform, the order volume is not good, but the key is that the platform has been secretly increasing the promotion rate. H said that in the half year he worked on eBay, the order volume has been sluggish, and the promotion rate has been around 12 points. However, recently he saw that the promotion rate has increased by 4 percentage points, which is almost killing him. This is exactly what the predecessor said: as long as the link sells well, the promotion rate will soar.

"The profit margin is thin to begin with. After half a year of operation with three accounts, the number of orders per day is less than one percent of Amazon's," said H. The company spent a lot of manpower and material resources to operate the platform. Recently, the sales volume has improved, with about 10 orders a day, but it is also found that the promotion fee rate has increased a lot, and the number of orders is basically the same as if it had not increased.

In the opinion of seller H, if sellers want to enter the eBay platform, except for the auto parts category, they must not spend huge costs to enter other categories. Even if the link advertisement position is stable in the first place, there will still be a situation where there are no orders, and the volume can be described as pitifully small. After entering eBay, you will deeply feel what it means to feel a pity to throw it away, but it is not very useful to keep it.

The seller also complained about the Temu platform. Seller H said: "I have posted 7 SKUs and more than 100 products, but they have not been successfully put on the shelves for more than a month. I can't contact the buyers, and no one cares about the mentions in the group. It's really a headache." The sellers in the same industry have been doing Temu for several months, with a turnover of tens of thousands, but now they have only withdrawn a few hundred yuan. Half of the products were sold but the price was suppressed and fined. H believes that if you are not a pure factory-type seller, it is generally not recommended to do Temu.

"Looking at the sluggish order volume and the rules that change every few days, I really can't do it anymore. I want to do Amazon, can I?" said seller H. Our products have high average order value and are not suitable for the Temu platform. It is difficult to achieve explosive sales. In order to grab the bonus of the platform, peers have rolled in at low prices, and in the end the gross profit margin is very low. If you can't sell, you can't make money.

There are many sellers who have the same idea as seller H. Even if they just joined the platform and received 5,000 orders a day and made more than 10,000 yuan in profit a day, they still couldn't resist the platform's low-price model: the continuous price cuts have compressed the sellers' profits infinitely. Soon after trying the platform, they realized that such a platform was not suitable for them and have already withdrawn or are preparing to withdraw.

However, even with fierce competition, the US market still holds a fatal attraction for sellers.

How is the US market in the second half of the year? Home furnishings become the focus

In the first half of the year, most sellers in the US market saw a decline in sales and poor performance, which made them even more worried about the US market in the second half of the year. "If the second half of the year is the same as the first half, then this year will most likely be a disaster," one seller lamented.

According to the predictions of job insiders, the US market is expected to improve in the second half of the year, and sellers will still have something to sell.

The consumption demand of American consumers is strong in the second half of the year. For the US market, interest rate hikes seem to have become a routine activity. Once the US government chooses to raise interest rates, it means directly suppressing consumption, making it difficult for companies to raise funds, and reducing the number of US dollars in the market. However, foreign media predict that the number of interest rate hikes will decrease in the second half of this year, and there may be two, or even no interest rate hikes in 2024.

Foreign media are relatively optimistic about the economic situation in the second half of the year. Although the quarterly GDP has slowed down, it is optimistic that the negative growth of last year has not occurred. The final revised data of the US Department of Commerce on June 29 showed that the US GDP grew by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding the previously released data and market expectations.

At the same time, American consumers have money in their hands. The unemployed have found jobs, and the employed have received salary increases. Among them, the unemployment rate in the United States dropped to 3.7% in May, which has returned to the unemployment rate in 2019 before the epidemic. At the same time, the salary income of employed employees is also rising. In May 2023, the average weekly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States was about US$1,147, an increase of 3.4% from US$1,109.28 in the same period last year.

At the beginning of the epidemic, Trump and Biden distributed more than 2 trillion US dollars in excess savings, and as of May, there was still about 1 trillion. In the first quarter of this year, the American people only consumed 200 billion. It is estimated that this part of savings will have no problem getting through this year's peak season.

In addition, due to the previous inflation, the wages of the American people have not risen as fast as the prices, and the government has not given out money, so it has begun to increase consumers' income in disguised form by reducing taxes. According to the new individual tax standard deduction, that is, the part that is not taxed, the individual filing can increase by $900, the couple filing can increase by $1,800, and the head of the household filing can increase by $1,400. The individual tax threshold has been increased by 7%, and gift taxes, inheritance taxes, three-child families, and medical insurance accounts have all been reduced. At the same time, their monthly mortgage payment pressure has also been reduced a lot, and they want to take advantage of the low interest rates to buy or change houses.

Considering multiple factors, American consumers in the second half of the year still have a certain purchasing power, and related hot-selling categories are also attracting much attention.

Foreign media pointed out: "The data on new home construction and sales in North America show obvious signs of bottoming out of the real estate market." The number of housing sales has rebounded, and the housing prices in the United States have shown a steady recovery month-on-month. This is of great significance to cross-border e-commerce sellers of home furnishings, tools and other categories. As the real estate industry recovers, the number of new houses that need to be renovated will also increase, and the demand for supporting products such as home furnishings will also increase.

At the same time, due to the impact of extreme weather in many parts of the United States in recent times, the temperature in many areas has reached 43 degrees Celsius, and the highest has soared to 46 degrees Celsius. This has led to a series of heat protection products selling well, such as electric fans, air conditioners, car refrigerators, and sun protection clothing, which have ushered in a peak in exports.

Fan products are particularly outstanding. "In previous years, summer orders would be completed and delivered before June, but this year their orders have been scheduled until the end of August," one seller pointed out. Relevant data shows that in the first five months of this year, the export volume of the entire series of fan products reached 2.35 million units, with an export value of US$20 million, a year-on-year increase of 240%.

In addition, Insider Intelligence data shows that in addition to food and beverages, the second fastest growing e-commerce category in the United States is health, beauty and personal care products, which include over-the-counter drugs, vitamins and supplements, personal care and hygiene products, toiletries, and baby and pet products. Insider Intelligence predicts that health, beauty and personal care will become the fastest growing industry next year, or increase by 17.5% year-on-year . By 2026, online sales of health and personal care products will exceed $200 billion.

Compared with the crazy categories such as clothing and 3C, sellers can also pay attention to categories with relatively less fierce competition and relatively faster growth. I believe that in the second half of 2023, the US market will also bring different surprises to sellers.

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