2,000 orders were returned after the holiday. Seller: I was slandered.

Almost every year around Halloween, you can hear wailing all over the cross-border circle. This year, the situation is even worse.

2,000 orders were returned after Halloween , seller: I lost money selling the goods

Earlier, a report released by the National Retail Federation ( NRF ) and Prosper Insights & Analytics predicted that U.S. consumer spending on Halloween this year will exceed $12.2 billion, making it one of the highest Halloween spending years in history.

The survey shows that 73% of American consumers plan to celebrate Halloween, which is higher than the 69% in 2022, a record high. Per capita spending has also increased, reaching $108.24, higher than in 2021.

Clothing ( adult , children and pet ), decorations, candy and greeting cards will all be hot items.

Meanwhile, a study by Censuswide also predicts that British consumer spending on Halloween this year will reach a record high of 1.07 billion pounds.

From this point of view, there is still hope for this year's Halloween market, but the reality seems to be a bit disappointing.

In October, the peak season for Halloween consumption, most sellers said that there was no growth in orders:

"——What happened? Who stole my order?

——Didn’t you say that there would be a huge increase in orders? Why didn’t you take me with you?

——The order volume is colder than the same period last year.

——The amount of hair lost is more than the order amount.

..."

Of course, there are also a small number of sellers who are secretly selling in bulk. One decoration seller said: " This is my first time trying to make holiday products, so I didn't dare to stock too much , but all of them were sold out 20 days before Halloween . "

Other sellers said that in such an economic environment, even during the peak sales season, they should not stock too much goods as the chance of unsale is too high; they should also avoid products with elements such as skulls and pumpkins that are more competitive.

Now that Halloween has passed, a group of sellers are suffering from low order volume, and a group of sellers are being bombarded with return information after the holiday.

Yien.com noticed that on multiple social media platforms, sellers were complaining about the Halloween return wave:

"——After selling 800 orders, the sales amount was only a few thousand dollars. After shipping, costs, and returns, I paid it all back.

——Never seen such a high return rate.

——Good, good, it’s a new high, the return rate has reached a new high, that’s great.

——My mental state is good after being bombarded with return information.

..."

One seller even said that 2,000 orders for his Halloween products were returned .

According to an old seller, the return rate on Halloween used to be as low as 5%-8%, but in fact many sellers would exceed this standard. Under the market conditions this year, this standard number will only be higher.

"Since I'm here, I might as well make the best of it. I choose to just sit back and relax. Our clothing return rate is the highest. People return clothes after wearing them. After the holidays, the clothes are useless," a clothing seller told En.com.

Another clothing seller said that according to the return information received in the past few days, the product return rate during Halloween has reached 20%. "This is not the final number. We are still receiving return information continuously. As long as I open my mailbox, I will be bombarded. Now I have PTSD when I see 'Refund has been initiated for the order...'. "

"The ads have been put out, and the orders have come in, but they are 'invalid' orders. In the end, they will still be returned. For a moment, I don't know whether it is more miserable to have 'orders returned' or 'no orders at all'," a seller complained on a social media platform.

Some sellers tend to think that "orders being returned" is even worse, because many products cannot be sold again after being returned, and they have to pay Amazon disposal fees, etc., which is equivalent to losing money.

Perhaps what makes sellers even more "desperate" is that returns have almost become the new normal across borders.

The new normal of cross-border transactions: retreat, retreat, retreat

"There was a PD autumn promotion, followed by Halloween, Black Friday Cyber ​​Monday , Thanksgiving, Christmas ... The second half of the year was very busy, but there were no orders. If there were orders , they were 'fake orders', which were returned immediately after the holidays, especially Halloween and Christmas."

A seller told Ennet that Halloween and Christmas are the peak returns season for his store. "I didn't plan to sell Halloween products this year, but I didn't want to miss this period when there might be a surge in orders. It turns out that I still can't make much money, and I'm having trouble getting return information."

Halloween and Christmas products have obvious holiday labels and are not for everyday use. In addition, platforms such as Amazon generally extend the return period during peak seasons. Therefore, it has become basically normal for sellers to have a surge in return rates after a surge in orders.

However, compared with returns during the peak season of holiday promotions, some sellers told Ennet that the return rate during non-holiday periods is much higher than before. " Since last year, our store's return rate has increased by 6%. We are profitable at the end of each month, excluding labor and product costs. It is not an exaggeration to say that we are losing money. "

The following surveys by authoritative market organizations have also confirmed that in today's economic downturn, consumers have higher requirements for online shopping and returns are becoming more and more common.

According to eMarketer 's market tracking report , the volume of e-commerce returns in the United States has surged since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The volume of e-commerce returns in the United States more than doubled in 2020 and increased by 24.7% in 2021.

Although the volume of e-commerce returns in the United States in 2022 fell by 2.5% from 2021 , eMarketer predicts that the volume of e-commerce returns in the United States will be higher than before the epidemic at least until 2026. This year, the total amount of retail returns in the United States is expected to reach 627.34 billion US dollars , and by 2026, the number of returners may grow to 113 million.

The economic crises brought about by inflation, strikes, etc. that follow may invisibly cause this forecast to become more pessimistic.

In terms of consumption channels, although e-commerce sales currently only account for about 15% of total retail sales in the United States, more than one-third of returns come from e-commerce sales.

Last year, the return rate in the UK retail market set a new record. Data from ReBound showed that the return rate in 2022 was 26% higher than in 2021.

The return rate was highest during Black Friday, with the return volume on November 28 alone being 308% higher than the daily average . The peak month for returns has changed from January to December.

At the same time, sellers are facing not only a continued surge in return rates, but also low-price discount competition from local retailers.

Inventory redundancy is a common crisis faced by retailers and cross-border sellers in the past two years.

In the United States, small retailers alone (with annual revenues of $100,000 to $1 million) have an average of $48,000 in excess inventory, and 59% of large retailers (with annual revenues of $100 million to $500 million) are trapped in a large-scale excess inventory dilemma .

As a result, nearly 60% of US retailers said they would clear inventory through discounts.

All these will exacerbate the survival difficulties of cross-border sellers. "It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders. Now it is difficult to even fill a box with goods and send them out."

"What's the point of the peak season? We used to sell 30,000 orders, but now we can sell 5,000 orders and keep the return rate at 5%, which is great."

With so many orders and a high return rate, will the next few days be good or hard? Sellers have their own answers ...

Seller

return the goods