After losing three million yuan on Amazon, the seller said he would be an employee again in 2024!

2023 is coming to an end, and it is time for cross-border workers to make their annual year-end summary and New Year plans.

What about those people who wrote their year-end summaries and set their goals so vigorously last year? Have they achieved their goals, or are they getting further and further away? What goals have they set for 2024?

Old people leave, new people come in. In the new year, some people are determined to close their shops and return to being workers, while others just want to survive on the platform; some set new goals, while others seek breakthroughs and choose to jump into new platforms; some people are eager for salary increases and promotions, while others have tasted the sweetness and choose to work alone; the cross-border circle in the new year can be said to be full of various forms.

The attitudes of cross-border people towards the new year also reflect their predictions about the prospects of this industry. One of the most common questions mentioned by industry insiders is "Is there still a chance for cross-border e-commerce in the new year?" Perhaps we can also find the answer from the goals of industry insiders.

Polarization: Some people exceeded their targets in 2023, while others lost millions

Recently, many cross-border people have been busy doing the year-end review work for 2023. Judging from the feedback from sellers, there is a polarization: some are smiling, and some are frowning↓

The 2023 target completion rate is 70%, which is pretty good.

I received a full year's base salary but no commission.

The boss paid in full for a Land Rover Range Rover. Tell me, have you made money?

The sales volume is decent, but the profit is pitifully small.

It’s hard to explain in a few words. We have been clearing out the inventory and will withdraw after that.

Annual sales have doubled, profits are good, and there is hope for a year-end bonus.

Those who make money happily review and wait for the year-end bonus, while those who do not perform well can only say bitterly: try again next year. Since ancient times, sellers have not been able to share the joys and sorrows of the market.

"Amazon's performance this year is disappointing. The bidding price for advertising suggestions has increased, the storage fee has increased, and the only thing that seems to have not increased is the number of orders. Except for a slight improvement in orders during Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, the number of orders at other times is like a pool of stagnant water. Compared with 2022, this year's orders have decreased by nearly one-third," a seller said helplessly. The number of orders for some sellers throughout the year has even shrunk by nearly half. Even if they spend a lot of money on advertising, the effect is minimal.

The decline in orders has a direct impact on sellers' revenue and profits. The editor learned that in 2023, 25% of Chinese cross-border sellers saw a sharp decline in revenue, and more than 70% of sellers did not meet expectations for profitability. Huabao New Energy, which had previously received much attention, lost nearly 200 million yuan. Compared with the rapid growth and over-fulfillment of targets in 2021 and before, the current situation can be described as polarized.

Another common situation is that revenue increases but profits do not. The number of orders has increased, sales have also increased, but the net profit at the end of the settlement has shrunk a lot. Products that rely on volume to win, high advertising costs and storage costs are all the culprits that reduce overall profits. However, many sellers have a sense of survival in the cracks: "It is an indisputable fact that the overall environment this year is not good. It is good to have a profit, and it is normal that the goal has not been achieved."

However, there are many who have achieved their goals. A seller who has been deeply involved in Amazon said, "This year's performance is not bad. The company's annual sales have doubled to 100 million yuan, and the net profit is close to 10 million yuan. We have exceeded our goals and I am very satisfied." Some sellers on the Japanese site are relatively lucky. The number of orders was mediocre throughout the year, but in the end, because of an earthquake in Japan, "a product with disaster prevention properties in the store, the unit price is 4,000 yen, and we can sell hundreds of them a day", which directly led to a significant increase in sellers' profits.

As the sellers said, sellers who can achieve growth or maintain the same net profit in 2023 are already relatively excellent, not to mention achieving the goals set at the beginning of the year. After all, there are still many sellers who are forced to exit after suffering heavy losses, or are struggling on the red line between closing their stores or not.

"I still can't make it to 2023. The cross-border project I persisted for more than two years ended with a loss of more than 3 million. In 2024, I will return to being a worker. If I can do it again, I will definitely not do it so recklessly," said Rich Cat Uncle. In fact, it is not just Rich Cat Uncle. In 2023, many sellers are losing money, ranging from tens of thousands to millions, and this is closely related to the sellers' own operations.

From the perspective of Uncle Cat, the failure was affected by several major factors: building a team too early, resulting in excessively high manpower costs; the costs of brand promotion and in-site advertising were too high; and the failed products were squeezed in the FBA warehouse, resulting in excessively high storage costs.

Most sellers are losing money. In addition to their own factors, the external environment and the platform are also key factors. Due to inflation in overseas markets, consumer purchasing power has weakened, and they prefer low-priced products, and then turn to Temu, SHEIN and other overseas platforms for shopping. On the platform side, Amazon constantly updates the front page, increases logistics, in-site advertising and other fees, and tightens sellers through video verification, review inquiry, tax inspection, indiscriminate scanning and other methods.

"We mainly sell household goods in the European market. With our price advantage, we have always had good sales, but this year's order volume is really annoying." According to sellers' feedback, the European site is not as crowded as the US site, and the market has always been relatively good, but this year's traffic has declined severely, and the order volume has also dropped by nearly 1/5. Not only that, but the number of scans is also coming in waves. If one link is blocked, the sales of other links will also be affected. With only a few orders a day, sellers are already considering closing the European site and switching to other sites.

On many social platforms, we hear a lot of voices such as "no profit this year", "failed to meet performance targets", "significant losses", and it seems that the negative voices always outweigh the positive ones. This is indeed the case. Data from a research company shows that more than 60% of cross-border companies have not met half of their annual targets. However, some sellers disagree with this. The goals set by some companies are often just "goals", an impossible height, and the completion rate is generally low.

In 2023, most sellers are losing money? Not really. Amid the voices of losing money, there are also voices of making money. Yuexia Xiaoxun, who transformed from a second-generation factory owner to a cross-border seller, mainly sells kitchen supplies. With a few links to small hits, she thrives on Amazon. In 2023, her annual sales reached tens of millions. The profit is not high, but it is a small profit.

Another company operator also said that the company's order volume this year is good and net profit has also increased. This can be seen from the frequency of the boss's car changes. A few days ago, a Land Rover Range Rover with full payment and no installment payment has become the boss's new car. "I am really happy for him."

Of course, it is not only the small and medium-sized sellers who are making big profits. The well-known big seller Huakai Yibai also released its 2023 performance forecast some time ago. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly, exceeding the performance bet. The estimated excess performance reward is about 90 million, which is the envy of others.

Perhaps, revenue and profit are lower than expected for most in the cross-border circle, but it cannot be denied that some sellers still made a lot of money in 2023. After reviewing 2023, the next step is the new year plan that is closely related to it.

2024: Sellers just want to survive, workers want to get rich

The revenue and profits for 2023 have been released, and at this moment, sellers and workers should have experienced joy and sorrow. The happy ones have achieved their predetermined goals and received generous year-end returns; the sad ones have suffered operating losses, received basic wages, or even been laid off. At this moment, their expectations for the new year have reached their peak↓

In 2024, I will switch to a larger company.

Promote the TikTok project and make some money.

In the new year, you must strive to do well and start working on your own as soon as possible.

If you achieve a higher level of performance, you will get more year-end bonus.

The store is not messed up, and sales are increasing.

Pay off previous debts as soon as possible.

…

"Plans that were not completed in 2023 will be continued in 2024; those that have been completed in 2023 will be increased in 2024; workers will continue to look for good jobs or go out to work on their own; the pie drawn at the beginning of the year, if not realized in one year, will be continued in the next year," this seems to have become the consensus of many people in the cross-border circle.

However, in this cold winter, the sellers are also very disappointed. "The order volume is getting worse day by day, and we have even had zero orders for a few days. Now it's not just the sales that are cold, but our hearts are even colder," one seller complained. Along with the sharp drop in sales, there is also a sharp drop in inventory capacity. One clothing seller has directly cut the inventory capacity from more than 4,800 to more than 1,600. This cut is probably the bottom line, and sellers are worried about what to do after the New Year.

The editor learned that the number of orders on various sites, including the US site and the European site, is declining, and has spread to all categories. Even if sellers continue to spend money on advertising, they cannot save the declining traffic.

The current situation has driven sellers who have been losing money in 2023 crazy: "In 2022, I lost hundreds of thousands; in 2023, I lost more than one million. I had hoped to make a comeback next year, but if the current situation continues, I dare not even think about making a comeback in the new year. I'd better plan how to survive." In fact, there are many sellers who just want to survive in 2024. In their view, "the prospects are unclear, and we don't want to make money, but just want to tighten the front line and stabilize the basic market."

Sellers whose profits increased or even doubled in 2023 are looking forward to even better performance in the new year. They also have higher expectations for Amazon and set new goals: "Our company's performance in 2023 is 65 million, and the performance target for 2024 has been set at 85 million." Some sellers have even more radical plans, "at least 200% growth", and for this reason, some companies have added leverage in the credit market.

Some sellers also choose to squeeze into platforms such as TikTok. "Our boss is very optimistic about the prospects of TikTok and is forming a new team to operate TikTok. One-third of the Amazon team has been transferred. When the company officially starts operating in the later stage, the proportion of operators on different platforms may be adjusted." Amazon's traffic has bottomed out, and some sellers who are well versed in the principles of multi-channel operations are also choosing to try other platforms to achieve new performance growth.

Workers want to get rich quickly and make more money. Due to the good profitability of the company, some workers expect to get more commissions and year-end bonuses in the new year, and even look forward to getting the company's year-end bonus, 500,000 bonus + a car. However, workers with poor performance, who have canceled all kinds of benefits and treatment early and only received basic salary throughout the year, have a slightly humble expectation: "I don't want to keep receiving basic salary. I hope the company will make more money in the new year so that I can get commissions or even year-end bonuses."

Yien.com learned that some companies with mediocre performance or even losses have long lost their commissions, not to mention the cancelled year-end bonuses. In stark contrast to Transsion, a large overseas company with an annual net profit of more than 5 billion, which gave all employees an additional 30% year-end bonus, and some employees received a year-end bonus of 300,000 yuan, they can only live on the basic salary. Only a few can get the year-end bonus, and most workers have the inner OS "Even if the performance is good, it depends on the mood of the boss, and the year-end bonus is mostly a mystery."

Compared with those who only get basic salary but no year-end bonus, the number of people who were laid off at the end of the year is more distressing. As some companies' performance did not meet the target, or even suffered losses, the companies began to lay off employees in consideration of the overall benefits. Smaller companies may lay off a few people, but some large companies directly laid off the entire project team.

"The annual meeting just ended last week, and the director and employees of the company's product development department have all left, leaving only one person," an operator said helplessly. The boss's move seems to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but in fact it makes it difficult for operations. In February, operations also have to include new product selection in the OKR assessment. The same situation is not an isolated case. Since New Year's Day, many cross-border workers have posted on social platforms that they have been fired. They said, "It's getting close to the year and it's hard to find a job. I'm one of the first people to go home for the New Year. I can only hope to find a big company next year."

Some workers who have received a lot of bonuses and have been promoted all the way are ready to work on their own next year. An operator who received a year-end bonus of 100,000 yuan said that he has accumulated enough work experience and his family can also support him financially, so he is ready to work on his own next year and become his own boss. "Working on your own is the only way to have a future and to truly achieve financial freedom," this is the feeling hidden deep in the hearts of many workers in the circle. You should know that many workers who work still run their own stores after work.

In fact, whether it is a cross-border boss or an employee, cultivating the cross-border circle and choosing different markets and positions are all pursuing the word "profit". After the rapid development in the past few years, China's cross-border e-commerce has steadily declined in 2023. Many people believe that cross-border e-commerce in 2024 will return to normal business logic and drive a new wave of investment boom.

In the new year, whose opportunity is it?

"The cross-border e-commerce market will grow steadily and naturally in 2023. The European and American markets will remain the mainstream, with no major changes, while markets such as Southeast Asia will grow rapidly," said a big seller in the industry. Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms such as AliExpss, SHEIN, Temu and TikTok Shop have gone global and risen overseas, sharing the mainstream US market and intercepting traffic from the Amazon platform, making the North American market more competitive.

Many Amazon sellers are generally facing a situation: low-priced products do not sell well, and high-priced products have few orders. Even with very little advertising, there is no sales volume, and sellers are almost unprofitable. However, some brand sellers are still performing steadily in 2023. Among the cross-border sellers going overseas, veteran players Anker and Savi, and upstarts Cider and Cupshe are all top-ranked brands.

As a major brand, Savi has 63 private brands with revenues exceeding 10 million yuan, of which 21 brands have revenues exceeding 100 million yuan. China's cross-border e-commerce exports have increased year by year, and most of the top growth is from branded sellers with refined operations, which is enough to show the future development direction: China's cross-border e-commerce brands are gradually moving towards refined operations. In 2024, more branded sellers will occupy a relatively large share of cross-border e-commerce.

Another good news is that the Fed’s interest rate cut will bring more opportunities.

Just now, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate decision for 2024, continuing to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, in the view of industry insiders, the core message conveyed by the Federal Reserve this time is that it will cut interest rates, but it does not want the market to get ahead of the market too much, so it keeps "pouring cold water" on the expectation of subsequent interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates for half a year, and the US inflation rate has remained ≥3% in the past six months, which is still a long way from the target of 2%. The interest rate will not be cut too early, but it is possible to cut interest rates in advance, which is expected to be in March or May. After the interest rate cut, the US dollar will depreciate against the RMB, which is not conducive to sellers' foreign exchange settlement, but is conducive to buyers' consumption. Buyers will find that the interest rate for saving money is low and it is difficult to maintain the value of money, so they will spend more money on consumption. For sellers, more buyers' consumption means more new opportunities.

At the same time, the cost-effectiveness bonus of the cross-border circle is still there. Looking at the world, the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce is nothing more than the competitiveness brought by high quality and low prices. However, compared with China, inflation is still an unavoidable reality. It is expected that overseas consumers will still have great demand for domestic products in the future.

"In 2023, affected by inflation and the decline in excess savings, the data during Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday this year exceeded expectations, which also confirmed that even if overseas consumption continues to decline, the demand for cost-effectiveness is still increasing," an industry insider pointed out. Against this background, industry insiders also remain optimistic about cross-border e-commerce in 2024.

Affected by the consumption downgrade factor, consumers will focus more on online products, because the prices of many online products are indeed relatively better than offline ones. Chinese sellers can offer extremely low prices with their excellent supply chain advantages, and can also occupy more market share. In the view of some industry insiders, "next year's industry situation should be better than this year."

However, from the platform side, Amazon sellers may not have an easy time in the new year. Emerging platforms such as TikTok Shop, Temu, SHEIN, and AliExpress have developed rapidly, with global downloads surging in the past year, dominating the 2023 global shopping app download growth rankings, and constantly squeezing Amazon's living space. In the coming year, they will continue to innovate gameplay and grab more market share. In the new year, Amazon will face not only the four little dragons, but also the impact of other emerging platforms.

2024 is called by industry insiders as the year when cross-border e-commerce returns to normal logic. This year, sellers will not only face competition among competitors, but also competition for territory among major cross-border e-commerce platforms. How to choose a site, plant a tree well, and bury the roots deeper may become a question that sellers have to think about in the new year.

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End of year

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