With a single-quarter increase of 12.8%, e-commerce will become the main growth force during the holiday shopping season!

A recent report showed that as Americans become increasingly cautious in their spending due to reduced household savings and concerns about the economy, retail sales growth during this year's holiday shopping season will be the smallest in nearly five years.

Total sales across physical stores and online channels are expected to grow 3.5% to 4.6% between November and January, to between $1.54 trillion and $1.56 trillion, according to Deloitte .

That compares with a 7.6 per cent increase in 2022, when inflation pushed up the prices of everything from Christmas sweaters to toys and home appliances.

Bain predicts that this year's unadjusted holiday season sales are expected to reach nearly $915 billion in November and December, an increase of about 3% year-on-year; US retail sales for the whole of 2023 will increase by 4.0% year-on-year, which is relatively slow.

Excluding inflation, actual retail sales in the United States during this year's holiday season grew by only 1%, far below the average level of the past 10 years and the lowest actual growth since the last financial crisis.

In addition, many retailers have lowered their expectations for the holiday sales season, with department store giant Macy's predicting that consumer spending will decrease.

Even so, holiday sales are not all bleak. Both Deloitte and Bain believe that online channels will become a new highlight of holiday sales growth. Deloitte predicts that 90% of this year's holiday sales will come from online channels and mail order; the increase in online channels for holiday sales this season will be between 10.3% and 12.8%. Bain also believes that the growth in holiday retail sales mainly comes from some in-store categories (such as health and personal care, general merchandise, food and beverages) and e-commerce channels.

Bain also predicts that this year's consumer shopping will be mainly concentrated in the holiday season, including the upcoming October. Consumers' disposable income, such as wages and stocks, has increased compared with last year, and the growth of holiday shopping is also due to this to a certain extent.

Holiday Shopping Season

E-commerce